What 2021 might have in store
2020 was a bit of a doozy.
If you’d have asked me this time last year what the new year might bring, I certainly wouldn’t have said a global pandemic, the brink of economic collapse and a complete rearrangement of the world order... It would be fair to say that 2020 proved to be a bit of a curveball in every conceivable sense.
It feels rather foolhardy to make any sort of prediction as to what shape 2021 will take. So I won’t. What I will do is look at what is definitely already on the cards and make a few guesses (not predictions...there’s a small but important difference).
First up, a vaccine is on the way.
It’s not an immediate silver bullet but it will at least mean a lifting of some of the more extreme restrictions we’ve been living under for nearly a year. It will mitigate the spread and infection rate. As the Washington Post put it “A terrible plague struck humankind, but scientists responded with unprecedented speed and common purpose; cooperating across national lines to...discover and manufacture vaccines that can prevent the disease”. Whilst as of today (30th December 2020), the UK finds itself at the centre of a ‘mutant strain’ storm, the fact is that the virus has been sequenced and these changes can be mapped accordingly. The vaccine remains effective and continues to be rolled out globally. So top of my list for 2021 is hugs. I’ll never take hugs for granted again and will be having as many as possible as soon as it is safe to do so.
Joe Biden will be President of the United States by the end of January.
America will rejoin both the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organisation. Whilst every country has its own responsibilities and part to play, in terms of convening power, leadership by example and sheer economic heft, the world needs America to be involved. It also needs one of the largest economies and polluters not to be pulling in the exact opposite direction to everyone else. Interestingly enough, the world has fashioned viable work-arounds for the US’ leadership absence these past 4 years. Canada and China came out swinging for the environment, Europe is putting tougher measures in place around personal data and Australia is leading the charge for an investigation as to Covid’s origins and a prevention strategy for a potential next pandemic. That’s all good news in itself because everyone on a personal, local and national level has to engage with these issues. Although we could all wish that the past 4 years had been different, the positive is that the world has been served a wake up call that no one nation or leader can be relied upon to ‘be the change’ - it takes participation and leadership from everyone for any sort of meaningful change to happen. Whilst we might not be a big happy family of 7 billion, come 21st January at least everyone will once again be facing in the right direction.
COP 26 in Glasgow, postponed from 2020.
There has been much debate as to what covid has meant in terms of global sustainable development. Estimates vary but the general consensus is that the halt in anything non-covid related has pushed back the achievement of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by up to 10 years. We were already an astonishing 52 years behind the original 2030 deadline, which potentially takes us to 2092 before we achieve all 17 of the SDGs. Put positively though, Covid has shown us what can be achieved - and how quickly - when humanity is pushed to extremes. Dramatic change is possible within weeks if we really want it. Bringing together world leaders in the wake of the pandemic will help to get things back on track, with added confidence that change on a previously unimaginable scale is possible; it’s no longer a question of feasibility but willpower.
Finance will continue green itself.
Towards the middle of 2020, Frances Barney, head of global risk solutions at BNY Mellon Asset Services said “The pandemic is... shifting the focus of ESG risks to concerns such as biodiversity, environmental loss, health and social issues.”
This is an important step towards decreasing the gap between the way global financial markets operate and consumer demand. In late 2019, Morgan Stanley reported that 95% of millennial investors were interested in funding sustainable causes (up from 86% in 2017). Add to that the generational wealth that is starting to pass from boomers to millennials - an estimated $30 trillion in the US alone - and this triple whammy of adjusted corporate focus plus a shift in consumer priorities along with the economic means to force change, adds up to a compelling case for a huge re-evaluation as to how money is invested, used and made to work for societal good rather than shareholder returns.
Working from home is here to stay.
It’s no longer seen as a bit of a taboo, the slackers option or a thinly veiled attempt to save on childcare costs. Presentee-ism will be a thing of the past (hopefully) because the office isn’t like going to school. Once you reach an age where you’re trusted to pay taxes or bring up children, surely in most cases you can be trusted to get your work done without physical supervision from your manager? There are pros and cons to home working - most obviously it can be lonely for people living alone or unbearable for people sharing a space with a noisy family or housemates. A mix of home and office working is probably the future, with employees having far more say in where they spend their working hours. This will make life easier for people who still have to commute. Even if only half of workers do work from home, and even if it’s only 50% of the time, that will mean 25% fewer commuters (50% of 50%) on a typical day. That means less pressure on public transport and less cars on the road. And if the theory holds true, a happier workforce is a more productive workforce so with any luck companies will see their outputs improve even if there are less people physically coming into the building each day.
There are plenty of other things on the horizon for 2021 but the list is too long to include all of them. With Covid still popping up everywhere like a very pernicious mushroom, it’s impossible to say what might happen next weekend, let alone forecast longer term trends for the year - but the pandemic has turbo-charged certain trends that were already making themselves felt. As I said at the beginning, I feel like these are pretty safe guesses rather than predictions - let me know what I’ve missed out.
